The future of intelligence in the Universe: a call for humility

Abstract Recent astrophysical findings suggest that the era during which Universe is habitable has just begun. This raises question whether entire may at some point in future be filled with intelligent life. Hanson et al . (2021, The Astrophysical Journal 922 , 182) argued we can confident will, by cosmic standards, soon dominated imperialist civilizations expand rapidly, persist long and make drastic changes to volumes they control. main motivation for this ‘grabby civilizations’ hypothesis it supposedly provides a good explanation of why are so early history. In paper, criticize fails, reasons analogous notorious Doomsday argument fails. last part paper broaden our discussion argue rational assign rather low prior probability grabby hypothesis. For instance, if there any rapidly indefinitely, well not inhabit, potentially strategic reasons. Hence, call epistemic caution humility regarding long-term evolution intelligence Universe.